2018 Football Projections

Auction values coming soon. These values are mean values of a distribution of expected outcomes, and you can see the full distribution by clicking on the name of the player.

These projections are unbiased and unadjusted by subjective opinion. (I didn’t tweak them when I thought they were wrong). I used previous two years stats, stats for other starters on the team, age, draft information, and current depth chart status to calculate the distributions. If there is a factor outside these inputs that you believe makes an item too high or low, you might be right. It’s important not to be a naive empiricist! But, make sure you have the proper confidence in your subjective opinion (which you can calibrate at quncertain.com).

Some players I think may be off: Tevin Coleman, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram may be undervalued because their depth chart based usage seem like it is unconventional.
Players with suspensions like Mark Ingram, Julian Edelman, Jameis Winston may be off.
Older players with proven track records of big numbers might be low. Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Antonio Brown
Saquon Barkley is probably underrated despite the system knowing he’s a 2 overall draft pick projected to handle RB, 3rd down RB duties. I might run another version where he is also first on the depth chart for goal line carries. (Right now the depth chart gives that distinction for the Giants to Jonathan Stewart).

I’m interested in any comments or suggestions anyone has. Send them over!

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