Another ESPN Standard League Projections Update

Updated Aug 29, 2017.
ESPN Standard Leagues are NonPPR leagues, with 2RBs, 2WRs 1Flex

This is the table for the top running backs. Click here to see the full projections for all positions.
RBs
WRs
QBs
TEs

 

Name Mean Average Points Actual Points 10team Auction Price
(% of budget)
12team Auction Price
(% of budget)

Devonta Freeman
200.2 0.0 69.9 68.2

David Johnson
196.1 0.0 55.5 63.1

Ty Montgomery
172.8 0.0 30.7 37.9

C.J. Anderson
163.7 0.0 26.3 26.5

Todd Gurley
162.8 0.0 23.5 29.0

DeMarco Murray
161.8 0.0 22.6 30.2

Le’Veon Bell
159.4 0.0 23.4 26.0

Carlos Hyde
159.3 0.0 19.6 27.5

Isaiah Crowell
159.0 0.0 22.0 27.3

Kareem Hunt
157.5 0.0 20.7 25.7

Leonard Fournette
156.2 0.0 18.0 29.9

Dalvin Cook
156.2 0.0 22.1 25.1

Mark Ingram
151.1 0.0 17.7 22.1

Jordan Howard
150.1 0.0 16.2 22.0

Frank Gore
147.7 0.0 14.0 18.5

LeSean McCoy
145.7 0.0 15.2 21.9

ESPN Standard Fantasy Football Projections Update

Updated Aug 24, 2017.
ESPN Standard Leagues are NonPPR leagues, with 2RBs, 2WRs 1Flex

This is the table for the top running backs. Click here to see the full projections for all positions.
RBs
WRs
QBs
TEs

 

Name Mean Average Points Actual Points 10team Auction Price
(% of budget)
12team Auction Price
(% of budget)

Devonta Freeman
205.6 0.0 61.4 60.6

David Johnson
203.1 0.0 51.9 57.2

Ty Montgomery
176.7 0.0 32.8 35.3

DeMarco Murray
170.6 0.0 27.8 29.2

Todd Gurley
169.5 0.0 21.2 31.0

Jordan Howard
164.9 0.0 27.9 30.5

Le’Veon Bell
162.1 0.0 25.6 25.9

Leonard Fournette
158.2 0.0 23.1 24.0

C.J. Anderson
157.8 0.0 20.1 27.1

Isaiah Crowell
155.9 0.0 17.6 21.4

Carlos Hyde
155.2 0.0 21.9 21.5

Dalvin Cook
154.4 0.0 19.0 19.1

Mark Ingram
151.3 0.0 17.1 20.5

LeGarrette Blount
149.1 0.0 19.6 17.9

LeSean McCoy
147.6 0.0 13.2 16.0

Melvin Gordon
146.3 0.0 13.5 17.2

Paul Perkins
146.2 0.0 12.7 17.4

Quincy Enunwa, and Why Projections should not be Normal

Quincy Enunwa had a breakout season last year, and most people expected him to continue to improve in 2017, his second year as a number 1 receiver. Those expectations were wrong, because today the Jets announced that Enunwa injured his neck, and now will miss the entire season. It is a very unfortunate break for Enunwa. It shows the violent and unpredictable nature of professional football, where players can get severely injured even in scrimmages. It also shows a flaw in many projection systems which assume normally shaped distributions and thereby neglect the possibility of a catastrophic event.

In fantasy football, and in most future looking things, there is a non-zero chance of a zero outcome. This should be reflected in projections in that system, otherwise the projections are over-confident.

I try to follow this guideline for projection systems I make; for example, here is the distribution for expected points for Enunwa (standard league with no PPR), which features the possibility of 0 points:

Some other projection systems you might find have sort of a box and whisker plot describing the variance of their projections. However, none of these reflect the possibility of a 0 score. Regression based projection systems assume a Gaussian, or normal distribution, which is better: there’s a non-zero chance of a zero outcome. However, a Gaussian distribution probably understates the probability of a zero outcome. (There are other problems, for instance these distributions allow for large negative-value outcomes, sometimes when such outcomes are impossible).

Now, other systems will be quick to adjust Enunwa’s projections to 0. Players with Enunwa on their roster will be quick to grab another receiver. This responsiveness is arguably more important. But, if you can be both responsive and properly calibrated in your precision metrics, this is the best of both worlds.