Quncertain is a platform for making many predictions, in domains you are very knowledgeable and domains where you’re very ignorant. As you make enough predictions you come to realize a couple things:
First, you realize that even in domains where you are very knowledgeable, and about topics where you feel very confident, you will sometimes be wrong.
Second, you realize that even in domains where you are very ignorant, you usually are able to answer at a higher rate than a completely naive guess (assuming you’re not arbitrarily selecting answers and are actually trying to be correct).
In the quncertain platform, the first scenario will manifest in making wrong predictions about things you assign a high plausibility.
The second scenario will manifest in topics where you continually pick an answer, but pick it at only 50% plausibility. Giving with an answer with 50% plausibility is like saying “I don’t know” but being forced to pick an answer anyway. You’ll find that over time you get a higher rate than 50% of these correct.
This is because you are tangentially aware of some knowledge in most domains. You don’t follow the stock market, but recognize certain company names. You know cities in the southern US are generally warmer than cities in the north. You have heard of certain books or authors or athletes, which makes them more likely to be higher on lists than more obscure options.
People might start overconfident, incorrectly answering items they rated with a high plausibility. The solution is to realize it and be more cautious in the amount of plausibility you assign to your answers. Or, they might start underconfident, and see that they are getting answers right at a higher rate than the 50% or 60% plausibilities they’re assigning. You adjust by consciously raising the plausibility you assign to answers you were previously conservative about.
If you push yourself both ways, using the calibration charts for feedback, you’ll have a better idea of how different levels of plausibility ‘feel’.
And, importantly, you will know to have contingency plans when you make decisions with real life consequences. Even in things where you’re very certain, prepare a little to be wrong. And even if you’re completely unsure about some outcome, listen for, and have a little faith in your gut feeling.