Probabilistic Fantasy Baseball Draft Evaluation

In a previous post, I claimed numeric projections should be distributions. This is an example of something that can be built on top of such a projection system. It is an evaluation of a 12 team draft for a 5×5 fantasy baseball league.

Team 3 has a 30% chance of winning the league with this roster:

Evan Gattis Hou – C
Paul Goldschmidt Ari – 1B
Dustin Pedroia Bos – 2B
Kyle Seager Sea – 3B
Carlos Correa Hou – SS
George Springer Hou – OF
Giancarlo Stanton Mia – OF
José Bautista Tor – OF
Todd Frazier CWS – 1B,3B
Jake Lamb Ari – 3B
Carlos Martínez StL – SP
Cole Hamels Tex – SP
Jeurys Familia NYM – RP
Héctor Neris Phi – RP
J.A. Happ Tor – SP
Brandon Kintzler Min – RP
Chris Tillman Bal – SP
Jon Gray Col – SP

Distributions give more traction for calculating probabilities, all the way up the chain from player projections, to team-by-team category projections, and finally, probabilities for winning the league. I am working on a short essay on decisions to expand on these ideas, as well as an automated system for evaluating drafts.

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*quick note on the points histograms, the labels on the x-axis should be divided by 2

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