Fantasy Football Projections for ESPN Standard Leagues

Here are some projections for ESPN Standard Scoring leagues. These leagues give 0 points per reception, which increase the value of running backs considerably.

The starting requirements for these leagues are such that you start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 flex.

The auction values reflect a percentage of bankroll, so if your budget is $200, you would multiply the values in the table by 2. The calculations assume a 12 team league. These values differ from many other auction values, so you might take them with a few grains of salt. In particular, it seems QBs are overemphasized compared to other valuation systems. If you do choose to use these valuations, it is smart to draft or auction with the intention of maximizing difference between the amount you pay and the amount our system projects.

For instance, in many ESPN mock drafts you’re usually able to get┬áDevonta Freeman (or David Johnson) in the first round and then Leonard Fournette in the second, and are wise to do so, despite the system judging Fournette more valuable. You are also usually able to get Phillip Rivers (and other highly valued QBs: David Carr, Russell Wilson, fairly late in drafts).

You can see the full table of projections here: 2017 ESPN Projections

I have also put up projections for the past years’ season, 2016, here: 2016 ESPN Projections

Both systems were trained on data from 2011-2015, and you can look at how the model did last year to judge how much you might trust it this year.
(updated Aug 1, 2017)

Name Mean Average Points Auction Price (% of budget)

Russell Wilson
274.5 38.0

Matt Ryan
273.9 29.2

Aaron Rodgers
264.3 23.3

Matthew Stafford
262.9 20.8

Ben Roethlisberger
250.6 15.3

Philip Rivers
249.7 9.4

Derek Carr
248.8 9.9

Cam Newton
247.3 6.7

Kirk Cousins
243.8 6.7

Andrew Luck
236.6 4.5

Tom Brady
232.6 4.0

Jameis Winston
229.4 3.2

Andy Dalton
225.5 3.2

Marcus Mariota
202.9 2.5

Sam Bradford
202.0 2.0

Devonta Freeman
198.0 61.0

Leonard Fournette
195.7 54.9

Carson Wentz
193.7 1.8

Carson Palmer
190.1 1.4

Alex Smith
186.8 1.4

David Johnson
183.3 31.5

Joe Flacco
183.0 1.6

Dak Prescott
182.8 1.8

Tyrod Taylor
182.5 1.8

Ryan Tannehill
180.8 1.7

Antonio Brown
180.1 34.9

T.Y. Hilton
180.0 20.7

Full 2017 Rankings and Auction Values

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