Author: Shaun Roach

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Updated Aug 29, 2017.
ESPN Standard Leagues are NonPPR leagues, with 2RBs, 2WRs 1Flex

This is the table for the top running backs. Click here to see the full projections for all positions.
RBs
WRs
QBs
TEs

Updated Aug 24, 2017.
ESPN Standard Leagues are NonPPR leagues, with 2RBs, 2WRs 1Flex

This is the table for the top running backs. Click here to see the full projections for all positions.
RBs
WRs
QBs
TEs

Quincy Enunwa had a breakout season last year, and most people expected him to continue to improve in 2017, his second year as a number 1 receiver. Those expectations were wrong, because today the Jets announced that Enunwa injured his neck, and now will miss the entire season. It is a very unfortunate break for Enunwa. It shows the violent and unpredictable nature of professional football, where players can get severely injured even in scrimmages. It also shows a flaw in many projection systems which assume normally shaped distributions and thereby neglect the possibility of a catastrophic event.

In fantasy football, and in most future looking things, there is a non-zero chance of a zero outcome. This should be reflected in projections in that system, otherwise the projections are over-confident.

I try to follow this guideline for projection systems I make; for example, here is the distribution for expected points for Enunwa (standard league with no PPR), which features the possibility of 0 points:

Some other projection systems you might find have sort of a box and whisker plot describing the variance of their projections. However, none of these reflect the possibility of a 0 score. Regression based projection systems assume a Gaussian, or normal distribution, which is better: there’s a non-zero chance of a zero outcome. However, a Gaussian distribution probably understates the probability of a zero outcome. (There are other problems, for instance these distributions allow for large negative-value outcomes, sometimes when such outcomes are impossible).

Now, other systems will be quick to adjust Enunwa’s projections to 0. Players with Enunwa on their roster will be quick to grab another receiver. This responsiveness is arguably more important. But, if you can be both responsive and properly calibrated in your precision metrics, this is the best of both worlds.

Here are some projections for ESPN Standard Scoring leagues. These leagues give 0 points per reception, which increase the value of running backs considerably.

The starting requirements for these leagues are such that you start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 flex.

The auction values reflect a percentage of bankroll, so if your budget is $200, you would multiply the values in the table by 2. The calculations assume a 12 team league. These values differ from many other auction values, so you might take them with a few grains of salt. In particular, it seems QBs are overemphasized compared to other valuation systems. If you do choose to use these valuations, it is smart to draft or auction with the intention of maximizing difference between the amount you pay and the amount our system projects.

For instance, in many ESPN mock drafts you’re usually able to get Devonta Freeman (or David Johnson) in the first round and then Leonard Fournette in the second, and are wise to do so, despite the system judging Fournette more valuable. You are also usually able to get Phillip Rivers (and other highly valued QBs: David Carr, Russell Wilson, fairly late in drafts).

You can see the full table of projections here: 2017 ESPN Projections

I have also put up projections for the past years’ season, 2016, here: 2016 ESPN Projections

Both systems were trained on data from 2011-2015, and you can look at how the model did last year to judge how much you might trust it this year.
(updated Aug 1, 2017)

Full 2017 Rankings and Auction Values